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Friday, December 14, 2018

Friday Feature Book Review: Super Freakonomics by Steven Levitt & Stephen J. Dubner 超ヤバい経済学:y スティーヴン・D・レヴィット + スティーヴン・ダブナー

Finance can be really fun! The economics of any interest rate rise is one thing, but it's hardly exciting to the average man on main street. This book is full of great economic observations and head scratching ideas. This amazing series continues on, and keeps on investigating economic questions that many want to know, but few can or are willing to investigate, despite clear economic impact. The team continues to ask economic questions few would consider like "How is a street prostitute like a department store Santa?". It is a very curious comparison that rings true once revealed. If a job is a job, then a temporary part-time job is still that, a temporary part-time job. It does not always lead to a full-time career.

Christmas is only once a year, and temporary short term jobs pop up around that season like Santa Claus roles as part-time jobs in department stores. However it turns out that during holiday season with family gatherings like July 4th or independence day, not everybody wants to stay home and talk to grandma. As a result this is when ordinary women notice that the price for prostitution from men bored, and from out of town, but in the big city of Chicago, peaks. It provides a perfect tax free opportunity to make money for a short period of time often with a temporary client base who do not even live in the city, hence no long term repeat business, just a short term windfall of cash. 

We know about health and cleanliness but "Why are doctors so bad at washing their hands?". It turns out that in many US hospitals, the standards were lower than the perceptions by even the doctors themselves. Most doctors when honest admitted to washing regularly 70% of the time. This contrasted with the nurses who observed them washing less than 20% of the time! Until a meeting where doctors present touched their hands in a petri dish and observed over weeks the bacteria growth, that things changed. The use of these petri dishes in the form of a screen saver later used in the hospital, proved popular as a clear visual reminder. In fact, other hospitals started to use the same screen saver in order to help spread the message. The benefits to the patients has been medically and economically extraordinary.


One personal favorite question asked was "Which adds more value: a Pimp or a Realtor?". Again data on such a comparison is difficult to find, but when focused can be created organically by coordinating on the ground with the prostitutes and home sellers themselves. One is clearly more difficult than the other. Some of the data points found though were not expected, like how much revenue from any prostitute is given up in "free" services to police officers, in order to avoid prosecution. We discover what is literally her "cost" of doing business! 

It turns out that a pimp does have a direct impact on higher earnings, as he typically acts as a marketer within high-end markets for his prostitute who usually relies on lower end street traffic. It brings a higher paying customers base to a low cost service zone, very much an economic development. This helps bring a better margin for the worker, who can then work less often, but at a higher rate of pay. This is contrasted in time value with a realtor who often encourages a homeowner to sell at the first price offered. Even though if it were their own home, they would wait longer for a higher offer, it is a pattern. It comes down to how much any extra commission is worth for the extra weeks in time spent. The breakdown of this incentive system is very well explained. It turns out to be a very solid case.

The Top 3 Takeaways from this book that really impact any reader are:

1) There is a lot to learn about the real economy around prostitution. I was very surprised to learn that 7% of transactions are free services to police officers in order to avoid arrest. 

2) The impact of pimps for prostitutes is often positive economically. A pimp can often act as a marketer and find high end customers. This increases wage income and hours worked compared to independent prostitutes. 

3) Input from global warming or global cooling needs another point of view. Can can we cool the planet quickly if we really needed to fast? Quick solutions are possible but not very attractive. However, they are a start.

There are many more questions that are fascinating reading. They include "What's the best way to catch a terrorist?" or "Did TV cause a rise in crime?". Another is "Can eating kangaroo save the planet?" As safety and the car industry interests me, one question really got my attention, and that was "How much good do cars seats do?" Installing them correctly is more difficult than many parents can handle. This kind of product needs better execution clearly, despite the positive intentions of the parents themselves. No matter what the question posed is, this team makes me want to read the answer they find every time time. Highly recommended!


Please visit us for our Friday Feature Review where TMJ Partners will review books, movies, conferences and anything else with a financial theme. Follow us now for our free weekly updates, just click hereThank you for reading and learning more about how money is made in finance! 

If you are interested in Sales & Trading, Banking or FinTech focused roles in Asia or Japan then click here. Follow TMJ Partners on Linkedin Instagram or TwitterWe are the world's #1 recruiter on Twitter, with over 50,000+ followers globally! click here! 

あなたアジア日本セールストレーディング,
バンキング、フィンテックの役割に興味がある場合は、こちらをクリックしてくださいティエムジェィパートナーズLinkedin Instagram またはTwitterでフォローしてください 世界中のTwitter第1位リクルーター50,000以上のフォロワー既に持っています!クリックしてください

For more Buy-Side and Sell-Side roles in Asia-Pacific, contact our TMJ Partners Japan & Asia Finance team.

Tokyo                                          Tokyo



      Mark  Pink                               Shinichi Nagasawa
Direct + 81 3 3505 3891              Direct + 81 3 3505 3891

Friday, December 7, 2018

Friday Feature Seminar Review: Bitcoin price view by Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors 金曜日のフィーチャーセミナーレビュー: トム・リーのビットコイン価格表示、   ファンドストラット・グローバル・アドバイザーズ

Last Thursday Dec 6, 2018, I was very excited to attend the Bitcoin seminar in Tokyo by Thomas Lee, a top Cryptocurrency analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors. There was a select crowd of 20+ attendees who were eager to learn about one of Cryptocurrency's biggest Bitcoin stars. The evening was sponsored by Classiarius, a great overview website for crypto and financial market trends. My personal notes are below.
* Tom Lee had a lot to say about why the Bitcoin price had rose so high in 2017, and why it had fallen so low in 2018. 
* Based on the price of Bitcoin mining costs of around US$6000, this stable price point lasted for much of Q3 this year. Once it dropped below this mining cost, it dropped rapidly as Bitcoin miners were no longer adding sales volume. Active crypto speculators had no counterparty to buy from or sell to in the same amounts.
* Based on this US$6000 price for Bitcoin, a 2.5 times future value, or US$15,000 price target for Bitcoin seems reasonable in his view for a future price rise recovery level.

* US regulators like the SEC have been low in support, but other parts of the US government like the DEA, have very high support for bitcoin. They are able to seize illegal profits from drug enforcement raids very easily when in crypto form. They can then resell them to the market helping the US treasury government coffers quickly.
* He gave a number of very solid explanations as to why the bottom price of Bitcoin was coming soon, but unclear with any short term price target. It could even reach US$1000 per Bitcoin short term, before a full recovery begins in 2019. 
* The overall recovery is not in doubt, so the short term bottom price is only a minor concern for longer term investors. There is already scale with consumer transactions. he is less worried about any investor's entry price short term.
* Financial Institutional investors like Fidelity, may lead the way forward to wide adoption in 2019. A key entry point for many institutions may be the 200 day moving average in Bitcoin price. Cryptocurrency may be a new digital asset, but financial institutions invest with time-tested rules and styles.
* His main view however, was that in a few year's time, the exact price bottom will be of no true value as the overall price of Bitcoin will rise and investors will ultimately benefit from this high growth Cryptocurrency asset. (Photo of Tom Lee & Mark Pink, President of TMJ Partners)
* As far as scale, Bitcoin has passed US$1.3BN in annual transaction volume, more than Paypal US$600M or Discover US$200M. Visa still dominates today with 8.9BN annually.
* One point about China, that I did not know, was about how you can legally mine Bitcoin in the country. Many government officials are doing so, and often diverting low cost or free electricity for these efforts. Staff needed to maintain the mines and distribution however, are expensive, even in China. Margins have certainly come down a lot in 2018.
* Another curious fact was that 14% of young men in Japan aged 25-30 owned cryptocurrency. This is a very high number of the Millennials.
* In Korea, 23% of 20 somethings bought cryptocurrencies. This compares to 19% for 30s, 12% for 40s, 8% for 50s but 10% for 60 somethings. This represents a large retail market for Bitcoin locally. The higher Bitcoin prices in Korea are known as the Kimchi premium.
* Lastly, the most interesting fact that I learned was about personal credit. "One of the best most accurate indicators of bad credit is freely available on a mobile phone. People who often let their mobile battery run out, and then need to scramble and recharge, are often the very same people who are a high credit risk. The two are very closely related". This was just one of many things I really enjoyed learning.



 Please visit us for our Friday Feature Review where TMJ Partners will review books, movies, conferences and anything else with a financial theme. Follow us now for our free weekly updates, just click hereThank you for reading and learning more about how money is made in finance! 

If you are interested in Sales & Trading, Banking or FinTech focused roles in Asia or Japan then click here. Follow TMJ Partners on Linkedin Instagram or TwitterWe are the world's #1 recruiter on Twitter, with over 50,000+ followers globally! click here! 

あなたアジア日本セールストレーディング,
バンキング、フィンテックの役割に興味がある場合は、こちらをクリックしてくださいティエムジェィパートナーズLinkedin Instagram またはTwitterでフォローしてください 世界中のTwitter第1位リクルーター50,000以上のフォロワー既に持っています!クリックしてください

For more Buy-Side and Sell-Side roles in Asia-Pacific, contact our TMJ Partners Japan & Asia Finance team.

Tokyo                                          Tokyo



      Mark  Pink                               Shinichi Nagasawa
Direct + 81 3 3505 3891              Direct + 81 3 3505 3891